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Many countries are making strategic plans to replace conventional vehicles (CVs) with electric vehicles (EVs), with the motivation to curb the growth of atmospheric CO2 concentration. While previous publications have mainly employed social-economic based models to predict CO2 emission trends from vehicles over the years, they do not account for the dynamics of engine and motor efficiency under different driving conditions. Therefore, this study utilized an experimentally validated vehicle dynamic model to simulate the consumption of gasoline and electricity for CVs and EVs, respectively, under eight driving cycles for different countries/regions. The CO2 emissions of CVs and EVs through 2040 were then calculated, based on the assumptions of the improvement of engine efficiency and composition of power supply chain over the years. Results reveal that, assuming that the current projections and assumptions remain valid, China would have the highest CO2 emission for EVs, followed by Japan, world average and the EU, mainly determined by the share of fossil fuels in the power grid. As for the influence of road conditions, the CO2 emission of CVs was found to be always higher than that of EVs for all countries/regions over the years. The difference is around 10–20% under highway conditions, and as high as 50–60% in crowded urban driving conditions.

CO2 Emission of Electric and Gasoline Vehicles under Various Road Conditions for China, Japan, Europe and World Average—Prediction through Year 2040