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Driven-pile setup is referred to a phenomenon in which the bearing capacity of driven piles increases with time after the end of driving (EOD). The setup effect can significantly improve the bearing capacity (ultimate resistance) of driven piles after initial installation, especially the ultimate shaft resistance. Based on the reliability theory and considering the setup effects of driven piles, this article presents an increase factor (Msetup) for the ultimate resistance of driven piles to modify the reliability index calculation formula. At the same time, the correlation between R0 and Rsetup is comprehensively considered in the reliability index calculation. Next, the uncertainty analysis of load and resistance is conducted to determine the ranges of relevant parameters. Meanwhile, the influence of four critical parameters (factor of safety FOS, the ratio of dead load to live load ρ = QD/QL, Msetup, the correlation coefficient between R0 and Rsetup, and ρR0,Rsetup) on reliability index are analyzed. This parametric study indicates that ρ has a slight influence on the reliability index. However, the reliability index is significantly influenced by FOS, Msetup, and ρR0,Rsetup. Finally, by comparisons with the existing results, it is concluded that the formula proposed in this study is reasonable, and more uncertainties are considered to make the calculated reliability index closer to a practical engineering application. The presented formula clearly expresses the incorporation of the pile setup effect into reliability index calculation, and it is conducive to improving the prediction accuracy of the design capacity of driven piles. Therefore, the reliability analysis of driven piles considering setup effects will present a theoretical basis for the application of driven piles in engineering practice.

Incorporating Setup Effects into the Reliability Analysis of Driven Piles