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Crack defects in the girth welds of pipelines have become an important factor affecting the safe operation of in-service oil pipelines. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the factors affecting the safe operation of pipelines and determine the ultimate load during pipeline operation. Based on the failure assessment diagram (FAD) method described in the BS 7910 standard, the key factors affecting the evaluation results of the suitability of X65 pipeline girth welds are analyzed, and the effects of crack size, pipe geometry, and material properties on the evaluation results are investigated. The results indicate that the crack depth is more crucial to the safe operation of the pipeline than the crack length. While the effect of wall thickness is not significant, the misalignment can seriously aggravate the stress concentration. In general, the higher the yield ratio and tensile strength of the pipe material, the more dangerous the condition at the weld. The ultimate axial load that a crack-containing girth weld can withstand under different combinations of the above factors was determined. Furthermore, a data driven model via the optimized support vector regression method for the ultimate axial load of the X65 pipe was developed for engineering application, and the comparison results between the FEM results and the predicted results proved its accuracy and reliability.

Ultimate Axial Load Prediction Model for X65 Pipeline with Cracked Welding Joint Based on the Failure Assessment Diagram Method