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In the current global system; supply chains are at risk due to increasing procurement shortages, supply disruptions, and the reliability of on-time deliveries with the original order quantities. As a result, an anticipated management model is of vital importance to provide companies with the productive flexibility necessary to adapt quickly to supply changes, in order to ensure the quality and delivery time through efficient management of stocks and supply costs. In this context, this research aims to develop a system to complement classical procurement planning based on inventory management methods and MRP (material requirements planning) systems by considering suppliers’ behavior regarding procurement risks. For this purpose, a system is developed that seeks to simulate the impacts of procurement shortages of different natures. Moreover, the research investigates the development of a system that performs procurement planning of a component manufacturer to determine the supply orders necessary to meet the master production schedule. The system is analyzed based on a set of indicators in the event that the supplier of a material needed for production does not supply on time or has short-term problems. Several scenarios are simulated, and the results are quantified by changing the procurement order quantities, which may or may not follow the economic order quantity (EOQ) model, and the potential procurement disruptions or shortages. The results show how the simulation and anticipation of potential suppliers’ procurement behavior concerning potential shortages and their probability are key for successful procurement within a joint strategy with classical procurement methods.

An Optimized System to Reduce Procurement Risks and Stock-Outs: A Simulation Case Study for a Component Manufacturer