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The paper presents an analysis of ship traffic using the port of Świnoujście and the problems associated with modelling vessel traffic flows. Navigation patterns were studied using the Automatic Identification System (AIS); an analysis of vessel traffic was performed with statistical methods using historical data; and the paper presents probabilistic models of the spatial distribution of vessel traffic and its parameters. The factors that influence the spatial distribution were considered to be the types of vessels, dimensions, and distances to hazards. The results show a correlation between the standard deviation of the traffic flow, the vessel sizes, and the distance to the hazard. These can be used in practice to determine the safety of navigation and the design of non-existing waterways and to create a general model of vessel traffic flow. The creation of the practical applications is intended to improve navigation efficiency, safety, and risk analysis in any particular area.

Modeling of Vessel Traffic Flow for Waterway Design–Port of Świnoujście Case Study