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This paper delivers a probabilistic attempt to prove that the selection of a random three-dimensional finite element (FE) model of a subsoil affects the computed settlements. Parametric analysis of a random soil block is conducted, assuming a variable subsoil Young’s modulus in particular finite elements. The modulus is represented by a random field or different-sized sets of random variables; in both cases, the same truncated Gaussian model is assumed. Mean values and standard deviations of random soil settlement are estimated by a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. With regard to the adopted FE model, the estimated settlement mean values do not vary significantly, but standard deviations do strongly. Similarities also appear in the diagrams of random field correlation length versus settlement standard deviation and the diagrams displaying a total number of model random variables versus settlement standard deviation. Thus, relevant single random variable models represent the random field approach well with regard to settlement parameter estimation. This remark is verified upon a settlement analysis of a three-dimensional FE model of a hypothetical strip foundation. Following the preliminary model observations, various probabilistic geotechnical analyses may be supported, e.g., continuous footing design, slope stability analysis, and foundation reliability assessment.

The Effect of the Selection of Three-Dimensional Random Numerical Soil Models on Strip Foundation Settlements