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In general, studies of the seismic reliability of water supply systems through hydraulic analysis models fall into three categories: (1) model development through hydraulic analysis, (2) establishment of post-earthquake recovery strategies, and (3) robust design in preparation for earthquakes and the development of improvement techniques. In this study, with regard to the design of earthquake resistance techniques, which is the third category, a seismic reliability assessment was conducted that considers the water supply system, and a plan to maximize the seismic reliability was determined as a result of the analysis. The degree of improvement in seismic reliability was quantified for water supply systems with various sources and water supply routes via modeling of seismic protection for each water supply route. Korea’s A industrial water system, which has a history of large-scale earthquakes, was divided into nine paths, and the reliability of the water supply system and the cost of earthquake resistance were calculated and compared between the different paths. A water supply path consists of a combination of pipes of various sizes and lengths, and the amount of water to be supplied differs between paths. Quantifying the effect of the water supply system and the seismic reliability of a route is intended to provide a basic methodology for identifying the critical path that should be the target of seismic protection when money and resources available for construction are limited. This methodology was used to confirm that the reliability of the water supply, the demand for water, and the cost of earthquake resistance should be considered together to establish an earthquake resistance strategy for the critical path in a water supply system. We expect that the results of this study will be used to establish detailed strategies for preliminary reinforcement against earthquake damage based on critical paths rather than all or individual pipelines in a water supply network.

Seismic Reliability Assessment of Water Supply Systems Considering Critical Paths