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Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an essential component of soil health and a potential sink for greenhouse gases. SOC dynamics in a long-term field experiment with mineral and organic fertilization on loamy sand podzol in the Vladimir Region, Russia, was traced with the dynamic carbon model RothC from 1968 until the present. During this period, C stock increased by 21%, compared to the initial level, with the application of manure, at an average annual rate of 10 t·ha−1. The model was also used to forecast SOC changes up to 2090 for two contrasting RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios. Up to 2090, steady growth of SOC stocks is expected in all compared treatments for both climate scenarios. In the scenarios, this growth rate was the highest up to 2040, decreased in the period 2040–2070, and increased again in the period 2070–2090 for RCP4.5. The highest annual gain was 21–27‰ under the RCP4.5 scenario and 16–21‰ under the RCP8.5 scenario in 2020–2040 in a 0–20 cm soil layer. Under the expected climate conditions in the 21st century, the C input will increase 1.3–1.5 times under the RCP4.5 scenario and decrease by 13–20% for the same period under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Modelling demonstrated potentially more favourable conditions for SOC stability in arable podzols than in Retisols in central Russia in the 21st century.

Arable Podzols Are a Substantial Carbon Sink under Current and Future Climates: Evidence from a Long-Term Experiment in the Vladimir Region, Russia