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The belt and road initiative (BRI) is a mutual development approach projected by China, which delivers exceptional opportunities for multi-phased communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa, and Europe. It opens ample opportunities for China to easily invest in overseas arable land. Based on the macro data of 119 countries in 2010 and 2016 before and after the BRI, the study comprehensively uses fuzzy C-means clustering and the entropy method to evaluate the potential of arable land investment from four dimensions, which existing literature has not fully grasped. Moreover, the study uses the exploratory spatial data analysis methods (ESDA), kernel density estimation, and trend surface analysis to study the spatial pattern characteristics. The results show that: (i) there are noticeable regional differences in the investment potential of arable land in BRI countries. Asian countries, led by Kazakhstan and Indonesia, and African Unions, led by Ethiopia, South Africa, and Tanzania, generally have higher investment potential. However, South America and European countries are relatively lower. (ii) Resource endowment and production conditions significantly impact overseas arable land investment potential. Asia and Africa have advantages in resource endowment and production conditions, while European countries generally have better economic and political environments. (iii) From the perspective of time evolution, the investment potential in 2016 is generally higher than in 2010, and the negative correlation and dispersion are lower than in 2010. Based on these findings, it is recommended that Chinese enterprises should comprehensively consider the differences in resource endowments and agricultural development levels in various countries, optimize investment layout, and reduce investment risks. Chinese companies should collaborate with host nations on modernization and promote the long-term viability of arable land investments.

Measurement of Investment Potential and Spatial Distribution of Arable Land among Countries within the “Belt and Road Initiative”