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Accident predictive model of the Highway Safety Manual is a tool that helps justifying the design of a road, however, before using it; it must be calibrated according to local conditions. In this scenario, the aim of this work was to estimate a calibration factor of HSM accident predictive model in the main roads of Loja canton. To do this, firstly, study sections were selected, then historical traffic information and geometric and operational variables of each section were collected. Using accident predictive model, the calibration factors for two-lane roads in rural and suburban areas were estimated. The calibration factors in two-lane rural roads were between 0.12 to 0.25, which indicates that the model underestimates the number of accidents recorder in these roads, while the two-lane sub-urban roads were between 0.00 to 3.24, which shows that in in some cases the model underestimates the real data and in others it overestimates it; which suggests that calibration is mandatory in any of these cases. In addition, to the calibration factors, this work provides detailed methodology, used in the calibration of accident prediction models of the HSM for rural and suburban areas.

Calibración del Modelo Predictivo de Accidentes de Tránsito del HSM en Carreteras del Cantón Loja (Ecuador)