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espanolResumen: Gran parte de las decisiones que se toman en las empresas publicas o privadas, se hacen a partir de pronosticos y de error o incertidumbre asociado con estos. El presente trabajo se realiza un pronostico de las exportaciones de cacao ecuatoriano para el 2018, se toman como referencia las exportaciones de los ultimos ocho anos. Se utilizaron metodos de pronosticos para el corto plazo como son las medias moviles y suavizacion exponencial, adicionalmente se realizo un pronostico trimestral para el 2018 con el metodo multiplicativo estacional. Palabras claves: Pronosticos, Series de tiempo, Medias Moviles, Suavizacion Exponencial, Exportaciones, Cacao. Englishforecasts and the error or uncertainty associated with them. The present work is a forecast of Ecuadorian cocoa exports for 2018, exports of the last eight years are taken as reference. We used forecasting methods for the short term such as moving averages and exponential smoothing, additionally a quarterly forecast was made for 2018 with the seasonal multiplicative method. Keywords: Forecasts, Time Series, Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, Exports, Cocoa.

Pronóstico de las exportaciones del cacao ecuatoriano para el 2018 con el uso de modelos de series de tiempo