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Eye-tracking has been extensively used to quantify audience preferences in the context of marketing and advertising research, primarily in methodologies involving static images or stimuli (i.e., advertising, shelf testing, and website usability). However, these methodologies do not generalize to narrative-based video stimuli where a specific storyline is meant to be communicated to the audience. In this paper, a novel metric based on eye-gaze dispersion (both within and across viewings) that quantifies the impact of narrative-based video stimuli to the preferences of large audiences is presented. The metric is validated in predicting the performance of video advertisements aired during the 2014 Super Bowl final. In particular, the metric is shown to explain 70% of the variance in likeability scores of the 2014 Super Bowl ads as measured by the USA TODAY Ad-Meter. In addition, by comparing the proposed metric with Heart Rate Variability (HRV) indices, we have associated the metric with biological processes relating to attention allocation. The underlying idea behind the proposed metric suggests a shift in perspective when it comes to evaluating narrative-based video stimuli. In particular, it suggests that audience preferences on video are modulated by the level of viewers lack of attention allocation. The proposed metric can be calculated on any narrative-based video stimuli (i.e., movie, narrative content, emotional content, etc.), and thus has the potential to facilitate the use of such stimuli in several contexts: prediction of audience preferences of movies, quantitative assessment of entertainment pieces, prediction of the impact of movie trailers, identification of group, and individual differences in the study of attention-deficit disorders, and the study of desensitization to media violence.

From the eyes and the heart: a novel eye-gaze metric that predicts video preferences of a large audience