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People are often biased in their predictions of the future, for example predicting that projects will take less time than they actually will or that they will be unlikely to suffer yet to happen misfortunes. These biases are frequently attributed to people being overly optimistic. However, research indicates that many of these seemingly motivated biases could actually be due to task characteristics or other non-motivational causes. While bias in beliefs about the future may not be due to optimism, a belief in optimism as the cause of bias may be problematic for both researchers and for people in general. Inasmuch as biased predictions are viewed as being caused by optimism and that being optimistic is viewed positively, people might not seek out the true causes of bias and methods that may be used to eliminate bias.

Belief in optimism might be more problematic than actual optimism