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Global temperature has increased by 0.85 • C between 1880 and 2012, with an acceleration during the last decades and many extreme weather events since about 1950 (IPCC, 2014). A consequence already observed is the change of species distributions. Thermal requirements and constraints are key factors in shaping realized distributions, and climate warming may move or remove these distributional barriers (Walther et al., 2002; Chen et al., 2011). Another consequence of climate warming is a phenology shift for many species (Parmesan, 2006). In plants and ectotherms, shifts in lifecycle timing can result from the direct relationship between temperature and developmental rate (Liu et al., 1995; Chuine et al., 2003). However, phenology is likely driven by a combination of both short-term plastic responses and long-term evolutionary responses to environmental variation (Chuine, 2010; Briscoe et al., 2012). Consequences of climate change on phenology have often been documented by the study of single life stages (Briscoe et al., 2012). Altered lifecycle timing not only changes climatic conditions undergone by a given stage but can also have cascading effects on subsequent stages. Phenological responses to climate change are thus limited by tradeoffs across the lifecycle, as stages are not independent and often have contrasting thermal sensitivities and requirements (Briscoe et al., 2012). Phenology shifts have been largely studied in plants, showing the role of temporal optimization to cope with several stage-specific constraints (Chuine, 2010). In insects, the overall phenological answer depends on similar complex interactions among life stages with antagonistic or non-additive effects (Briscoe et al., 2012). In turn, these tradeoffs necessarily differ across the distribution due to spatial heterogeneity in climatic conditions and inter-population differentiation. Yet, the relationship between phenology and range shifts has rarely been investigated. Its study requires long time-series of phenology and large-scale surveys of distribution over time, but such historical datasets are rare. The pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is a well-documented Lepidopteran insect which extends its distribution northwards and to higher elevations in Europe as a response to attenuated cold constraint since the 1990s (Roques et al., 2015). This range expansion is acknowledged to be one of the few responses to climate change with direct causal relationship demonstrated (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). For this species, historical data are available not only on distribution at continental scale, but also on phenology and its variation within and among

Looking Beyond the Large Scale Effects of Global Change: Local Phenologies Can Result in Critical Heterogeneity in the Pine Processionary Moth