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Despite the well-recognized importance in understanding the long term impact of anthropogenic release of atmospheric CO 2  (its partial pressure named as  p CO 2 air) on surface seawater  p CO 2  ( p CO 2 sw), it has been difficult to quantify the trends or changing rates of  p CO 2 sw driven by increasing atmospheric CO 2  forcing ( p CO 2 sw atm_forced ) due to its combination with the natural variability of  p CO 2 sw ( p CO 2 sw nat_forced ) and the requirement of long time series data records. Here, using a novel satellite-based  p CO 2 sw model with inputs of ocean color and other ancillary data between 2002 and 2019, we address this challenge for a mooring station at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station in the North Pacific subtropical gyre. Specifically, using the developed  p CO 2 sw model, we differentiated and separately quantified the interannual-decadal trends of  p CO 2 sw nat_forced  and  p CO 2 sw atm_forced . Between 2002 and 2019, both  p CO 2 sw and  p CO 2 air show significant increases at rates of 1.7 ± 0.1 μatm yr –1  and 2.2 ± 0.1 μatm yr –1 , respectively. Correspondingly, the changing rate in  p CO 2 sw nat_forced  is mainly driven by large scale forcing such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with a negative rate (-0.5 ± 0.2 μatm yr –1 ) and a positive rate (0.6 ± 0.3 μatm yr –1 ) before and after 2013. The  p CO 2 sw atm_forced  shows a smaller increasing rate of 1.4 ± 0.1 μatm yr –1  than that of the modeled  p CO 2 sw, varying in different time intervals in response to the variations in atmospheric  p CO 2 . The findings of decoupled trends in  p CO 2 sw atm_forced  and  p CO 2 sw nat_forced  highlight the necessity to differentiate the two toward a better understanding of the long term oceanic absorption of anthropogenic CO 2  and the anthropogenic impact on the changing surface ocean carbonic chemistry.

Quantifying the Atmospheric CO2 Forcing Effect on Surface Ocean pCO2 in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre in the Past Two Decades