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This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic\uddensity currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on\uda doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on\udthe spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of\udsuch an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting\uda simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal\udassessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects,\udbased on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr.Mean and percentilemaps of PDC invasion\udprobability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to\udthe effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they\udoriginated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the\udcaldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of\udassuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the\udpotential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption\udof Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to\udthe previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC\udinvasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability\udpeak of 25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce\udby a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e.,\udincluding both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)