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When data is poor we resort to theory modelling. This is a two-step process.We have first to identify the appropriate type of model for the system underconsideration and then to tailor it to the specifics of the case. To understandsettlement formation, which is the concern of this paper, this not onlyinvolves choosing input parameter values such as site separations but alsoinput functions which characterises the ease of travel between sites. Althoughthe generic behaviour of the model is understood, the details are not.Different choices will necessarily lead to different outputs (for identicalinputs). We can only proceed if choices that are "close" give outcomes aresimilar. Where there are local differences it suggests that there was nocompelling reason for one outcome rather than the other. If these differencesare important for the historic record we may interpret this as sensitivity tocontingency. We re-examine the rise of Greek city states as first formulated byRihll and Wilson in 1979, initially using the same "retail" gravity model. Wesuggest that, whereas cities like Athens owe their position to a combination ofgeography and proximity to other sites, the rise of Thebes is the mostcontingent, whose success reflects social forces outside the grasp of simplenetwork modelling.

Was Thebes Necessary? Contingency in Spatial Modelling