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Background:  The symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) range from moderate to critical conditions, leading to death in some patients, and the early warning indicators of the COVID-19 progression and the occurrence of its serious complications such as myocardial injury are limited.   Methods:  We carried out a multi-center, prospective cohort study in three hospitals in Wuhan. Genome-wide 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) profiles in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was used to identify risk factors for COVID-19 pneumonia and develop a machine learning model using samples from 53 healthy volunteers, 66 patients with moderate COVID-19, 99 patients with severe COVID-19, and 38 patients with critical COVID-19.   Results:  Our warning model demonstrated that an area under the curve (AUC) for 5hmC warning moderate patients developed into severe status was 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.85) and for severe patients developed into critical status was 0.92 (95% CI 0.89–0.96). We further built a warning model on patients with and without myocardial injury with the AUC of 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.95).   Conclusion:  This is the first study showing the utility of 5hmC as an accurate early warning marker for disease progression and myocardial injury in patients with COVID-19. Our results show that phosphodiesterase 4D and ten-eleven translocation 2 may be important markers in the progression of COVID-19 disease.

5-Hydroxymethylcytosine Signatures in Circulating Cell-Free DNA as Early Warning Biomarkers for COVID-19 Progression and Myocardial Injury