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We use the Anti-Alcohol Campaign in 1986 and the rapid expansion of the beer market after the collapse of the Soviet Union as two quasi-natural experiments to identify highly persistent habit formation in alcohol consumption among Russian males. Importantly, these results apply to all levels of alcohol consumption and are not driven by heavy drinking or alcoholism. The two large shocks combined with persistent habits lead to large cohort dierences in consumer behavior even decades later. We derive a basic model of habit formation with homogeneous preferences over two habit-forming goods, which is consistent with these facts. Using placebo tests as well as simple descriptive statistics, we show that habits are formed during early adulthood and remain largely unaected afterward. The main alternative hypotheses such as income eects, unobserved taste heterogeneity, stepping-stone eects, and changes in culture or social norms are inconsistent with those patterns. Finally, our results suggest that male mortality in Russia will decrease by one quarter within twenty years even under current policies and prices due to the long-run consequences of the large changes in the alcohol market.

The Long-Run Effects of a Public Policy on Alcohol Tastes and Mortality