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This paper presents challenges and solutions to how a typical future energy system might be structured, roles of different equipment and plants and how they would be expected to interact to achieve cost efficient power balancing of an electric grid mainly supplied by renewable wind and solar. Energy storage and demand response will play significant roles and so will gas turbines in simple and combined cycle. Hydrogen and power to X is envisaged as the ultimate solution for balancing power to become fossil-free but there will be other fuels too, e.g. biogas, bio-methanol, ethanol, renewable diesel. Which systems and fuels to use will most probably be a matter of availability and cost, which to a large extent will be a matter of minimizing capex for components used for limited operating hours whilst fuel cost and efficiency will be decisive for systems operated many hours. Gas turbine plants may fill more than one function in grid balancing, which means good usage of capital. Highly flexible CHP (Combined Heat and Power) plants can play a key role in grid balancing should that be appreciated by regulators. The use of heat pumps instead of CHP, or in parallel to flexible CHP, is also expected to become common practice. BACKGROUND With the increased share of renewable power, the residual load (defined as total demand minus renewable power at any instant) decreases. Variations in the residual load increases due to overlaid demand variations with supply variations, i.e. the relative control variations in residual load increase significantly, both in shorter and longer time frames. At the same time the inertia in the grid is carved out and errors in forecasts tend to increase. All combined, results in new flexibility demands for the residual load. The following article is based on the assumption that; political powers succeed in stopping the use of fossil fuels in the power sector, then it is a given that the use of renewable power must increase significantly, storage solutions must be used and the remaining sector of residual load providers only operate on renewable fuels. Renewable fuels will be more costly and the price for fossil fuels will become very low due to the decrease in demand. Legislation and carbon dioxide taxes will come into force in order to block the use of fossil fuels. When this will take place is unclear, but given the current global situation, it may come faster than we imagine. The purpose of this article is to give a high-level picture only; future winners will be different for different conditions and markets. The mixture of solutions will result from price development, greatly driven by market forces different in comparison to today’s traditional conditions. TOOLS FOR GRID BALANCING IN A FUTURE DE-CARBONIZED ENERGY SYSTEM Balancing the grid with coal fired power plants, operated mostly at inefficient part load to be ready to take load, should be a soon ended strategy. Natural gas fired combined cycle power plants are an intermediate step towards a sustainable future since the carbon dioxide release per kWh at full load is reduced to less than 50% and the plants can operate more flexibly, thus avoiding inefficient idling. But if that solution is only an intermediate step, will then investment in such a plant mean that a lock-in effect is created and that owners may be left with stranded assets when new solutions are required?

Grid balancing in future energy landscape – a matter of cost optimization.