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40 Vol.5 No.1 January 2009 1. 序論 2006年における日本の人為起源CO2総排出量に占める 旅客交通起源排出量の割合は12.0%である。そのうち航空 は6.2%(総排出量の0.8%)を占めているが、1990年比で 60.9%増と著しい増加を示している。また、運輸部門のう ちで脱炭素燃料に切り替わるのが最も遅いのは航空産業と 考えられており、航空からのCO2排出量割合が他部門に比 べ相対的に上昇していく要因として懸念される1)。 欧州では、航空会社のETS(European Emission Trading Scheme: 欧州排出権取引市場)への参加や、運航によっ て排出されたCO2の削減費用の一部を搭乗客に負担しても らい、排出を埋め合わせするカーボン・オフセットの普及 など、地球温暖化防止を重視した取り組みが実施に移され つつある。それとともに、地域間高速鉄道網の整備や高速 道路通行への課金といった施策も推進されている。日本に おいても今後は、導入・充実すべき輸送モードを環境性能 Synopsis: Objective. The focus of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction policies for the inter-regional passenger transport system depends on two factors: 1) the aviation sector is the slowest to eliminate use of carbon fuels; and 2) aviation is expected to contribute more to greenhouse gas emissions than other transport modes. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore the possible changes in each indicator of Life Cycle CO2 (LCCO2) per passenger-km and eco-efficiency considering travel speed as a result of a shift from aviation to the high speed railway system (Shinkansen). CO2 emissions both for aviation and Shinkansen were estimated by applying the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method and taking into account same important parameters such as passenger demand. Results and Discussion. CO2 exhausted from aviation and Shinkansen during normal operation and the additional LC-CO2 from new infrastructure provision were compared. The first analyzed the sensitivity with regard to the number of passengers for a 500km long corridor. The results indicate the following: 1) CO2 per passenger-km generated from aviation hardly vary with the number of passengers; 2) LC-CO2 per passenger-km for Shinkansen is inversely proportional to the number of passengers; 3) LC-CO2 per passenger-km for Shinkansen is lower than that for aviation for the passenger volume of approximately 1,200 or more passengers per day; and 4) for eco-efficiency, the break-even point is more than around 2,000 passengers per day. The second considers the distance and travel demand for both aviation and Shinkansen. A possible shift from the current demand for aviation to Shinkansen was compared for each inter-prefectural Origin-Destination (OD) pair. Shinkansen was found to be superior for OD pairs with higher demand and shorter distances. Conclusions. This paper proposed a methodology for identifying an inter-regional transport system with lower CO2 emissions. An application to the inter-prefectural ODs for existing airlines in Japan shows the conditions that provide an advantage of lower CO2 emissions for aviation or Shinkansen.

Methodology for Identifying an Inter-regional Passenger Transport System Generating Less Carbon Dioxide