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A desirable option for increasing milk yield per farm is to increase milk production in summer without compromising peak-season production or the duration of lactation. The dairy industry has a goal to achieve a 4% per month post-peak decline of milk production. The effect of five pasture types and two summer water regimes on predicted farm milk yield, in Northland, Waikato, Manawatu and Canterbury was measured over 1 year. Two pasture treatments, resident pasture and Grasslands Nui ryegrass, were common to all sites. A third pasture treatment varied between sites: triple mix (Grasslands Advance tall fescue, Grasslands Kara cocksfoot, and Grasslands Maru phalaris) at the Manawatu site; the same triple mix but with Grasslands Raki paspalum at the Northland site; and low-endophyte ryegrass and Grasslands Kahu timothy (LER) at the Canterbury site; all sown treatments included red and white clover. All five pasture types were included at the Waikato site. On average for all pasture types, water deficit reduced summer herbage accumulation (HA) to 79, 68, 43 and 18% of irrigated controls, and annual HA to 88, 80, 73 and 63% of irrigated controls in Northland, Waikato, Manawatu and Canterbury, respectively. Since farm milk yield predicted by UDDER was highly correlated with annual HA (R 2 = 83%), the effects of pasture type and water deficit on milk yield were similar to effects on HA. Seasonal and annual HA differed among the five pasture types at each of the four sites. The most important factor affecting predicted farm milk yield was annual HA, with relatively little effect from the seasonal pattern of pasture growth. Differences in shapes of the predicted milk supply curves for various treatments occurred, particularly when drought forced early drying-off. The best predicted summer milk yield was for the Canterbury irrigated LER pasture treatment, a 6.8% per month postpeak decline of milk production.

Pasture species and drought impacts on milk yield 2. Predicted farm milk yield at four sites