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Background: The mortality rate of children under 5 years old is an important index to measure the quality of maternal and child health work of a region. We aimed to analyze the death status of children under 5 years old in a city of northwest China (Lanzhou) from 2012 to 2018 and establish a time series model to predict the death of children under 5 years old in 2019. Methods: Collecting death detection data of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from 2012 to 2018, descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the mortality of children under 5 years old. Results: The total number of deaths of children under 5 years old was 1213 from 2012 to 2018, of which 770 were neonatal deaths, 1026 were infant deaths and 187 were children aged 1 to 4. The average annual mortality rate was 5.89‰, the mortality rate of neonates, infants and children aged 1 to 4 were 3.74‰, 4.98‰ and 0.91‰ respectively. The mortality rate of neonates, infants and children under 5 years old all showed a downward trend, and APC was -10.0%, -9.4% and -8.1% respectively (P<0.001). Congenital heart disease, premature/low birth weight and birth asphyxia were the main causes of death in children under 5 years old, and their mortality rate showed a downward trend, with APC of -13.8%, -13.7% and -13.5% respectively (P<0.05). It is predicted that the total number of deaths of children under 5 years old will be 142 in 2019. Conclusion: Reducing infant mortality, especially neonatal mortality, is the key to reducing the mortality of children under 5 years old. Simple seasonal model can better reflect the mortality trend of children under 5 years old in the area and make short-term prediction. ISSN: 2639-4391 Weitao Liang1§; Fang Liang2§; Jin Bai1; Yiping Hu2; Rong Zheng1; Li Pan2; Zhilan Li1* 1Research Institute of Child, Adolescent and Women’s Health Care, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China 2Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou, 730030, China §Equal Contribution: Weitao Liang and Fang Liang

Mortality Analysis and Model Prediction of Children Under 5 years Old in a City of Northwest China