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In exploited fish stocks, long-term trends towards earlier maturation have beeninterpreted as an evolutionary response to sustained, high fishing mortality.The evidence used to support this diagnosis consists of directional shifts inprobabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) that are consistent with theexpectation that high fishing mortality favours the genotype for earlymaturation. Most PMRNs describe the probability of becoming mature solely as afunction of age and length. Because they do not fully account for severalphysiological aspects of maturation (including growth effects on maturation,critical time windows for maturation decisions and developmental thresholds formaturation), it is possible that the observed shifts in PMRNs that are currentlybeing attributed to changes in genotype actually reflect environmental effectson maturation. In this study, a comparative approach was used to interrogate thehistorical database for Northeast Arctic cod Gadus morhua in relation to 2contrasting but not mutually exclusive hypotheses: (1) that there is asignificant effect of food availability on the probability of being mature,using condition as a proxy for food availability; and (2) that there has been along-term shift in the PMRN for maturation in a direction that is consistentwith a diagnosis of fisheries-induced evolution. The results show that thematuration trends in Northeast Arctic cod could be variously interpreted asshowing a strong environmental effect, no genetic effect, or a strong geneticeffect. If the scope of the analysis had been restricted to testing a singlehypothesis related to either an environmental effect or a genetic effect, thenthe study could very easily have made a Type I error of inference. A moreintegrated view of maturation, incorporating key aspects of the physiologicalprocesses that culminate in maturation, is therefore required to avoid incorrectinferences about the underlying causes of earlier maturation

Integrated perspectives on genetic and environmental effects on maturation can reduce potential for errors of inference