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Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marine\udtaxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions\udcan have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity and\udsingle-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking the\udeffect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently pop -\udulation growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobates\udpelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture–mark−recaptures (CMR)\udand modelled the probability of skipping reproduction as a function of oceanographic variables\udusing CMR models. We demonstrate that a decrease in sea surface temperature in the pre-breeding\udperiod negatively influences skipping propensity, and therefore hypothesize that this behaviour\udwould have significant influence on population abundance over time. For this reason, we analysed\udpopulation growth as a function of skipping probability as affected by oceanographic\udconditions. We used stochastic demographic models to forecast the fate of the population, and\udevaluated contrasted environmental condition scenarios. As a result, we found that a decrease in\udfrequency of cold winter events would probably reduce skipping propensity, with a positive effect\udon the population as a whole

Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel