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-Current and future climate alterations might impact ecological processes like timingof breeding. We used multivariate linear models to assess the importance of food availability andclimate on timing of breeding and hatching brood size of European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelisin 2 colonies, Sklinna (65° N) and Røst (67° N), in the Norwegian Sea over 21 yr (1989 to 2009). Predictorvariables were ICES abundance estimates of young saithe Pollachius virens, the staple foodof shags in these colonies, the previous winter’s North Atlantic Oscillation index (wNAO), and seasurface and air temperatures. Annual population size was included to control for density-dependenteffects. The best model for hatching date explained 15% (Sklinna) and 70% (Røst) of thevariation and showed that shags bred earlier when 1 yr old saithe were more abundant. Themodel for Røst also included 2 yr old saithe and wNAO. The best model for hatching brood sizeexplained 40% (Sklinna) and 48% (Røst) and included a positive effect of population size at bothsites. The model for Røst also included a positive effect of 1 yr old saithe. Our study demonstratesthat abundance of 1 yr old saithe is a key factor for the breeding performance of shags in bothcolonies, whereas the climate variables were of less importance. Delayed breeding and low broodsize were not associated with a high population of breeders, indicating breeding performance wasdensity-independent and that the positive relationship between breeding numbers and saitheabundance mainly reflected variation in non-breeding among established breeders.KEY WORDS: Phalacrocorax aristotelis · Norwegian Sea · Timing of breeding · Brood size ·Pollachius virens · NA

Forage fish abundance is a predictor of timing of breeding and hatching brood size in a coastal seabird