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We evaluated and compared the influence of the largest temperature anomaly in recent history, the 19971998 El NinoIndian Ocean Dipole anomaly that killed half of the corals in the Indian Ocean, with a nearly coincident increase in fisheries management restrictions on coral reef fisheries in southern Kenya. Seawater temperatures, benthic primary producers, and fishing effort and catch rate and income time series collected over the 19932012 period were evaluated using time series and variable cointegration methods. An observed decline and subse- quent increase in catch rates was closely associated with the implementation of increasing fish- eries restrictions and was not predictably cointegrated with the temperature or the primary pro- ducer's time series. This may have occurred because the disturbance was pulsed with a limited 6 yr impact on the primary producers and the fishery was heavily utilized and composed of fast- growing generalist species with broad diet and habitat needs. Consequently, under these condi- tions, promoting fisheries restrictions is expected to attenuate the predicted declines in fish catches projected by global warming.

marine ecology. progress series

Catch rates and income are associated with fisheries management restrictions and not an environmental disturbance, in a heavily exploited tropical fishery