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Seagrass meadows influence local hydrodynamics in coastal bays, resulting in a decrease in the shear stress acting on the underlying bed sediment. The reduced sediment suspension and water column turbidity creates a more favorable light environment for further seagrass growth. This positive feedback is strong enough to induce depth-dependent bistable dynamics with 2 possible stable states, an extant meadow and a bare sediment surface. A coupled vegetation-growth hydrodynamic model was used to investigate eelgrass stability and leading indicators of ecosystem shift under the effects of sea-level rise and increases in water temperature associated with climate change. The model was applied to Hog Island Bay, a shallow coastal bay within the Virginia Coast Reserve, USA, where eelgrass restoration efforts are ongoing. The results indicate that while extant eelgrass meadows are likely to tolerate sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency of days when summer water temperature exceeds 30°C will cause more frequent summer die-offs. This increase in the number of higher temperature disturbance events is likely to push a dense meadow initially located within the bistable depth range (1.6 to 1.8 m mean sea level) toward and eventually past a critical bifurcation point, from which recovery is not possible. We identified 2 leading indicators of a meadow nearing this bifurcation point, both associated with the number of leaves per shoot: ‘flickering,’ which reflects conspicuous fluctuations from one attractor to the other across the threshold, and ‘slowing down,’ which is the decreased recovery from perturbations as a system gets close to a threshold. Our model indicates that the eelgrass in these coastal bays has limited resilience to increases in water temperatures predicted from current climate change models.

Modeling the effects of climate change on eelgrass stability and resilience: future scenarios and leading indicators of collapse