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ABSTRACT: We examined how local- and regional-scale environmental drivers affect patterns ofabundance and recruitment in 2 abundant and ecologically significant forage fishes (Pacific herring Clupea pallasi and surf smelt Hypomesus pretiosus) in the Skagit River estuary (Puget Sound, Wash-ington, USA). We identified associations between survey catch rates and environmental conditions at2 scales: within-season distributional shifts in response to local environmental conditions, and inter-annual patterns of relative year class strength related to both local- and regional-scale drivers. Usingmonthly data that spanned a 9 yr period, we found that a small proportion (<2%) of the total deviancein catch rates for both species was related to within-estuary variation in surface water temperatureand salinity but that a larger fraction (7 and 12% for Pacific herring and surf smelt, respectively) wasexplained by interannual variation in recruitment strength. Annual abundance indices for both spe-cies were uncorrelated with cumulative river discharge and regional sea surface temperature butpositively correlated with an index of cumulative coastal upwelling, suggesting a linkage betweenregional-scale environmental conditions and age-0 recruitment. Moreover, our annual age-0 Pacificherring time series was positively correlated with a similar time series from the Strait of Georgia(~100 km north), further suggesting that age-0 recruitment in these populations is synchronized byregional upwelling as opposed to estuary-specific environmental forcing related to river flows. Thepresent study isolates a potential key process governing age-0 forage fish abundance in this systemand highlights the importance of simultaneously evaluating patterns of variability across multiplespatiotemporal scales in order to identify the primary pathways through which climate may impactestuarine populations.KEY WORDS: Puget Sound · Pacific herring · Surf smelt · Deviance partitioning · Upwelling ·Fish recruitment

Multiscale influence of climate on estuarine populations of forage fish: the role of coastal upwelling, freshwater flow and temperature