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A substantial increase in food production is needed for global food security. Europe is the largest wheat producer, delivering 35% of wheat globally, but its future genetic yield potential is yet unknown. We estimated the genetic yield potential of wheat in Europe under 2050 climate by designing in silico wheat ideotypes based on genetic variation in wheat germplasm. To evaluate the importance of heat and drought stresses around flowering, a critical stage in wheat development, sensitive and tolerant ideotypes were designed. Ideotype yields ranged from 9 to 17 t ha−1 across major wheat growing regions in Europe under 2050 climate. Both ideotypes showed a substantial increase in yield of 66−89% compared to current local cultivars under future climate. Key traits for wheat improvements under future climate were identified. Ideotype design is a powerful tool for estimating crop genetic yield potential in a target environment, along with the potential to accelerate breeding by providing target traits for improvements.

Substantial increase in yield predicted by wheat ideotypes for Europe under future climate