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As surface warming threatens rice production in temperate climates, the importance of cool regions is increasing. Cultivar choice is an important adaptation option for coping with cli- mate change but is generally evaluated with a single metric for a few hypothetical cultivars. Here, we evaluate adaptation to climate change based on multiple metrics and cultivars in presently cool climates in Japan. We applied the outputs of a global climate model (MIROC5) with a Repre- sentative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario, dynamically downscaled to a 10 km mesh for the present (19812000) and future (20812099) climate conditions. The data were input into a rice- growth model, and the performances of 10 major cultivars were compared in each mesh. With the present-day leading cultivars, the model predicted reduced low-temperature stress, a regional average yield increase of 17%, and several occurrences of high-temperature stress. The most suit- able cultivars in each grid cell changed dramatically because of climate change when a single metric was used as a criterion, and the yield advantage increased to 26%. When yield, cold, and heat stress were taken into account, however, the currently leading cultivars maintained superi- ority in 64% of the grid cells, with an average regional yield gain of 22%, suggesting a require- ment for developing new cultivars by pyramiding useful traits. A trait such as low sensitivity to temperature for phenology helps in ensuring stable growth under variable temperatures. Increas- ing photoperiod sensitivity can be an option under future climates in relatively warmer regions.

Adaptation of rice to climate change through a cultivar-based simulation: a possible cultivar shift in eastern Japan