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Using an optimal fingerprinting method and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model simulations, we attempted to quantify the human contribution to the observed annual mean temperature change that occurred over China between 1961 and 2005. Results indicate that the combined effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol forcing are clearly detectable in the observed annual mean temperature change. Effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings are separately detectable, and the climate response to greenhouse gas forcing can be identified clearly and robustly. Our results also show that only when anthropogenic forcing is involved can the observed changes in China’s mean temperature from 1961 to 2005 be explained.

Detection and attribution analysis of annual mean temperature changes in China