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Performance of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0) in simulating the regional extreme precipitation change over eastern China east of 105°E was evaluated. Daily observed precipitation data for 1956–2009 at 349 rain gauge stations in China were used for comparison. The 20th century simulation forced by observed greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols shows that (1) BCC_CSM1.0 can reproduce the basic feature of observed climatology of annual total precipitation and extreme precipitation over the 95th percentile, with spatial correlation of 0.77 for both of them. (2) BCC_CSM1.0 is also able to capture the main change patterns of yearly accumulated extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile, although there are some model biases in the spatial extension and strength. Some model biases are also noted: (1) Annual total and extreme precipitation south of Yangtze River are underestimated. (2) Frequency of heavy precipitation (≥25.0 mm d–1) over eastern China is underestimated, but the frequency of light rain (0.1 to 9.9 mm d–1) is overestimated. (3) Simulated long-term trends of annual extreme precipita tion amount and frequency in the last 50 yr are the opposite of the observations in North and South China.

Changes in precipitation extremes over Eastern China simulated by the Beijing Climate Center ­Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0)

Changes in precipitation extremes over Eastern China simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0)