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To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately\udreflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils—Sequestration and\udEmissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and\udorganic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the\udnational scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data\udare used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here\udwe present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using\uddata from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change\udfor the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show\uda high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the\udsoil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated\udand measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation\uderror, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations\udwill be ~11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured\udvalues, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the\udnational scale (–4%

Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties