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The large scale distribution of crops is largely determined by climate. The authors present the results of a climate-crop prediction model based on the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization crop-suitability approach, implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) environment using several global environmental databases. The model utilizes daily temperature and moisture conditions to determine the properties of the growing period. Crops are characterized by their variety-specific minimum growing period requirements and photosynthesis and respiration properties. Temperature and solar radiation during the growing period control the development of each crop. The model simulates crop-specific geographic distributions by demarcating the region where productivity is possible. The model takes only non-irrigated crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by technological means is not considered. The model therefore shows no crop growth along major rivers in arid, often irrigated, regions. (Copyright (c) Inter-Research 1993.)

Modeling the potential change in yield and distribution of the earth's crops under a warmed climate