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Two scenarios of climatic change were examined to determine the potenhal impact of winter-season warming on peach production in South Carolina, USA. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 1961 to 1990 were increased by 2°C and 4 "C at 26 stations to simulate how increased winter temperatures could affect chilling during the dormant season and the last spring frost date. An average winter temperature increase of 2°C would decrease chilling hour accumulation by approximately 400 h and approach the minimum requlred chilling hours of most peach varieties currently grown in the state. A 4°C warming would result In average chilling hour accumulation ranging from 775 h in coastal regions, to 1350 h In the Piedmont. I f growers continued to use current peach varieties, such warming would substant~ally decrease the probability of achieving sufficient chilling hours during the dormant season. Hokveuer, the scenanos of winter temperature increases must also be viewed with regard to the hazards of spnng frost. Our analysis shows that the date of the mean spring frost could occur approximately 2 and 4 w k earl~er than at present for 2 "C and 4 "C winter warming scenarios, respectively. Future work assessing the vulnerability of peaches to climatic change will require greater insight into the expression of climatic change, the relationship between environmental variables and peach phenology, and the adjustment strategies that growers could use to adapt to certain changes.

Potential impact of winter temperature increases on South Carolina peach production