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Purpose. Improving the productivity and energy efficiency of complex technological complexes through the development and use of scenario-cognitive modeling in control systems.   Methodology. Fuzzy cognitive maps, in the form of a weighted oriented graph, were used to develop a scenario-cognitive model. As a result of the conducted research studies, a new strategy of generalization of an expert estimation of mutual influences of concepts on the basis of methods of the cluster analysis is offered.   Findings. Based on experimental research and object-oriented analysis of a complex technological complex, a structure of a fuzzy cognitive model is created. A scenario-cognitive model in the form of a weighted oriented graph (fuzzy cognitive map) has been developed, which illustrates a set of connections and the nature of the interaction of expertly determined factors. To solve the problem of impossibility of operative interrogation of experts in case of change in parameters of functioning of difficult technological complexes, expert estimations of values of weight coefficients of mutual influence of concepts are received. Cluster analysis methods were used to group expert assessments and determine a single value as a result of the research. The results of the scenario-cognitive modeling of the enterprise showed that production shutdowns and abnormal situations related to the failure of electrical equipment, deviations of the technological regime and the quality of wastewater treatment have a significant impact on the dynamics of productivity, energy efficiency and efficient use of equipment.   Originality. The new scenario-cognitive model developed for forecasting the situation in the absence of accurate quantitative information consists in creating a fuzzy cognitive map, for modeling which many parameters of complex technological complexes are expertly determined. Using the developed methodology, a degree of interaction of these parameters is found, which allows determining dynamics of change in target criteria of functioning under various management strategies.   Practical value. On the basis of the created scenario-cognitive model, software has been developed which allowed analyzing dynamics of change in productivity, energy efficiency and efficiency of use of the equipment under possible scenarios of functioning of difficult technological complexes is developed.

The synthesis of strategies for the efficient performance of sophisticated technological complexes based on the cognitive simulation modelling