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This study examines possible indicators of financial distress: financial ratio; financial decision; the preferences of investors; and economic macro conditions. Based on these indicators, the model of financial distress was constructed using capital structure theory. The population in this study is manufacturing companies listed on The Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2003 to 2016. This study relies on the composite market index to detect whether the market is bullish or bearish using regression analysis time series. Then, the factor analysis and logistic regression are used. Models which predict financial distress in bearish markets are more accurate than in a bullish market. Investors, therefore, areÂ more vulnerable ina bullish market. Equity financing will reduce the probabilityÂ of financial distress in both bullish and bearish markets. This supports the pecking order theory in capital structure - when the companies need funding, an early funding alternative is to retain earnings.

Bulls and Bears and Bankruptcy- An Early Warning of Distress.