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The deformation prediction models of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam are developed, including two statistical models and a deep learning model. In the statistical models, the reliable monitoring data are firstly determined with Lahitte criterion; then, the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models for deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam are constructed in terms of the reliable monitoring data, and the factors of water pressure, temperature and time effect are considered in the models; finally, according to the monitoring data from 2006 to 2020 of five typical measuring points including J 23  (on dam section24  #    ), J 33  (on dam section4  #    ), J 35  (on dam section8  #    ), J 37  (on dam section12  #    ), and J 39  (on dam section15  #    ) located on the crest of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam, the settlement curves of the measuring points are obtained with the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models. A deep learning model is developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network. In the LSTM model, two LSTM layers are used, the rectified linear unit function is adopted as the activation function, the input sequence length is 20, and the random search is adopted. The monitoring data for the five typical measuring points from 2006 to 2017 are selected as the training set, and the monitoring data from 2018 to 2020 are taken as the test set. From the results of case study, we can find that (1) the good fitting results can be obtained with the two statistical models; (2) the partial least squares regression algorithm can solve the model with high correlation factors and reasonably explain the factors; (3) the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model increases with increasing the amount of training data. In the deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam, the LSTM model is suggested when there are sufficient training data, while the partial least squares regression method is suggested when the training data are insufficient.

Comparative Study on Deformation Prediction Models of Wuqiangxi Concrete Gravity Dam Based on Monitoring Data