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Conjugate vaccines have reduced the incidence of invasive disease caused by Haemophilus influenzae, type b (Hib), in industrialized countries and may be highly effective against Streptococcus pneumoniae. However, the serotype specificity of these vaccines has led to concern that their use may increase carriage of and disease from serotypes not included in the vaccine. Replacement has not occurred with the use of Hib vaccines but has occurred in trials of pneumococcal vaccines. Mathematical models can be used to elucidate these contrasting outcomes, predict the conditions under which serotype replacement is likely, interpret the results of conjugate vaccine trials, design trials that will better detect serotype replacement (if it occurs), and suggest factors to consider in choosing the serotype composition of vaccines.

Bacterial Vaccines and Serotype Replacement: Lessons fromHaemophilus influenzaeand Prospects forStreptococcus pneumoniae