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A water balance simulation model of seasonal and long-term flow dynamics of total dissolved iron has been developed using the example of the middle-size and smaller rivers of the Altai–Sayan highland. Model input factors and input variables included monthly precipitation and average monthly air temperatures (normalized and spatially generalized according to the regional climate model), water flows calculated for individual river basins (according to a discharge model for mountain rivers), and cartographic information on river basins and arable land area. The sensitivity of the model to natural variations of input factors was determined as the contribution of a specific factor to the variance of the observed values of hydrochemical runoff. The calculated criteria RSR = 0.57 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.67 indicate the good quality of the model.

System-analytical simulation of the hydrochemical runoff of mountain rivers: case study of dissolved iron