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In recent years, General Circulation Model (GCM) has been widely used in climate change impact studies. It is an effective tool for well understanding of a change in climate behavior in a long term. Nowadays, more than twenty GCMs have been developed in many research institutes around the world. We selected the latest version of GCM developed by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan Meteorology Agency, MRI-AGCM3.2S. The model has a horizontal resolution of triangular truncation 959 (TL959), and the transform grid uses 1920 x 960 grid cells, corresponding to approximately a 20-km grid interval with 64 vertical layers (top at 0.01 hPa).We used a regional distributed hydrologic model based on the concept of the variable infiltration capacity to generate runoff intensity and a kinematic wave model including effects of dam operation and inundation to simulate river discharge. The C.2 gauging station at Nakhon Sawan was selected to monitor changes in the river discharge. Input data of the distributed hydrological model, GCM precipitation and evapotranspiration, were corrected to remove biases using the quantile-quantile bias-correction method for precipitation and the different factor bias- correction method for evapotranspiration. The results of the experiment in projecting discharge of the Chao Phraya River under the near future climate (2015-2043) and the future climate (2075-2103) by using the bias- corrected GCM data set showed that 1) the mean annual discharge tends to increase in both near future and future projection periods, 2) During a dry season the tendency of low flow in the near future period tends to decrease. However, the flood frequency analysis using Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) indicates that flood risk in the future will have more severities and damages to the country as the result of the analysis shows that, in the near future the magnitude of 80-year return period flood is greater than the devastating 2011 Thai flood. .

River discharge assessment under a changing climate in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand by using MRI-AGCM3.2S