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Desertification and land degradation are causing a serious environmental problem in Mongolia, with climate change and human activities being major contributors to the land degradation. This study examines whether MODIS NDVI satellite data time series can be used to detect land degradation and regeneration areas in Eastern province of Mongolia. Time series analysis was applied to a 12-year MODIS NDVI satellite data record, based on the hypothesis that the resulting NDVI residual trend vectors would enable successful detection of changes in photosynthetically active vegetation. GIS and statistical analyses were used to estimate the trend of the annual average NDVI for June, July and August from 2006 to 2017. We also examined land cover development and meteorological data for the same period. MODIS land cover products proved suitable for identifying areas of vegetation cover change. Areas showing positive and negative NDVI trends mostly coincided with areas of land cover class change indicating an increase or a decrease in vegetation, respectively. The Dornod was selected as a study site since the area is vulnerable to desertification. The study results reveal an increasing trend in NDVI values in 89.03% of the total study area and a decreasing trend in NDVI values in 11.07% from 2006 to 2017. Overall, 11.07% of the total area, has been affected by desertification. There was a positive moderate correlation between change in precipitation and the NDVI trend in the study area. The study indicates that the effects of precipitation variance on the changes in the trend of the NDVI resulted from more than human activities in the study area.

ASSESSING HUMAN ACTIVITIES INFLUENCES ON THE VEGETATION COVER USING TRENDS OF NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX TIME SERIES: CASE STUDY IN DORNOD PROVINCE