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The application of a comprehensive model system of vehicle fleet composition and evolution is described; this model system is capable of taking a base-year vehicle fleet and making it evolve over time in annual time steps through the events of vehicle disposal, replacement, and acquisition. The model system is sensitive to a host of socioeconomic, demographic, built environment, and vehicle technology and price variables; this sensitivity makes it ideally suited for such an application. Coupled with a demographic forecasting model system that causes the population to evolve over time, the vehicle evolution simulator is able to predict changes in vehicle fleet composition, miles of travel, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions under a wide range of scenarios. On the basis of the findings from this study, future technological innovations (e.g., increase of driving range) and pricing levels (doubling of gas cost) will have greater impacts on vehicle fleet composition, utilization, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions than more incentive-based approaches such as free access to high-occupancy vehicle lanes for alternative-fuel vehicles.

Assessing the Impact of Transportation Policies on Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Using a Household Vehicle Fleet Simulator