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External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighbourhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. A probabilistic model has been developed to calculate frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards.

Frequency of damage by external explosion hazards based on geographical information