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Precursor analysis is an internationally recognized method for quantifying the safety-relevance of operational events in nuclear power plants. Precursors are operational events in nuclear power plants which had no serious impact, but which could have led to serious impacts, if additional malfunctions had occurred. Examples of such operational events are component failures or transients, for example, the loss of main feedwater. On the basis of the probabilities for the occurrence of additional malfunctions or initiating events precursor analyses determine the probability with which these additional malfunctions during the event occurred would have led to core damage. This conditional probability is a measure for the safety relevance of the operational event occurred. Events, for which the probability of core damages is &gt; 10 –6 , are internationally classified as “precursor”.

Precursor analyses for German nuclear power plants