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The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is a major source of water for coastal communities in Ocean and Monmouth Counties, New Jersey. Recent (1989-92) ground-water withdrawals from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the study area average about 15.5 million gallons per day. If present allocations were fully utilized, average withdrawals could increase to 25.6 million gallons per day, which could lower ground-water levels and reduce streamflows. In order to address concern about these effects, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, conducted a study to describe and characterize the aquifer system, its interaction with surface water, and its response to withdrawals. Steady-state and transient numerical modeling techniques were applied to compare predevelopment and recent ground-water-flow patterns and to estimate average and seasonal hydrologic effects of projected increases in ground-water withdrawals. Simulation results indicate that ground-water withdrawals during the 1980's reduced average base flow in some streams as much as 11 percent from predevelopment base flow. Projected withdrawals at full-allocation levels would further reduce the average base flow of the Toms River, Metedeconk River, and Kettle Creek by about 2, 8, and 15 percent, respectively. Seasonal variations in base-flow reduction are controlled by seasonal variations in withdrawal rates and aquifer-storage effects. Seasonal reduction of base flow in the Toms River, Metedeconk River, and Kettle Creek with withdrawals at full-allocation levels would reach about 3,14, and 26 percent, respectively. Increases in withdrawals projected to the year 2010 would result in smaller reductions in base flow. Ground-water withdrawals during the 1980's shifted flow patterns in the KirkwoodCohansey aquifer system, causing average water-level declines of up to about 20 feet near pumping centers. Projected increases in withdrawals under conditions of full utilization of present allocations would result in additional declines of up to about 20 feet. Increases in withdrawals projected to the year 2010 would result in smaller water-level declines. INTRODUCTION * The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is a major source of water supply for coastal communities in Ocean and Monmouth Counties, New Jersey (fig. 1). Ground-water discharge from this aquifer system to the Toms River, the Metedeconk River, Kettle Creek, and other tributaries is the largest source of freshwater inflow to northern Barnegat Bay and associated estuaries (fig. 2). Rapid population growth in Ocean and Monmouth Counties, coupled with restrictions on withdrawals from underlying confined aquifers (New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, 1986), have resulted in increased demand for water from the unconfined aquifer system. As a result of the increase in withdrawals from shallow wells, water levels in the surficial aquifer have declined, reducing the discharge of fresh ground water to streams, wet74 °3 7' 30 " 30 ' 22 '3 0" 15 ' 7' 30 " 74 ° 40 ° 15 ' 7' 30 " 40 °

Simulation of ground-water flow in the unconfined aquifer system of the Toms River, Metedeconk River, and Kettle Creek basins, New Jersey