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..     ..    ..  . Introduction ..  ....  .. . . . .  .. . .. . .. . . . . .. .. . . .. . . . . .. .. .. .. ..  .. .. .. . . . ... .. . . . . ... . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. .. . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Purpose and scope . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Physical and hydrometeorological setting 4 Development of the forecasting equations   5 Selection of explanatory variables 5 Development of final explanatory variables . . .... .. .  .. . .  .. . .. . .. . . . . .. .. . .. . . . ..  .. ..  .. ..  .. . ..  .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Function of explanatory variables in equations . .. .  ... . . ... . . . . .. . . . . ..  ..  .. .. . . .. . . . . . . .  .. . . .. . . .. ... . ... . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 7 The forecasting equations .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Results from calibration and testing of equations . .  .. ... .... .. . . .. .  .. .. . . . . ..  ..  .... .. .. . . . . .. ..  .. . . .  10 Assessment of performance and reliability of equations 17 Potential use and problems with equations  24 Summary   24 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Appendix 1. Descriptive statistics for monthly, annual, and seasonal (September-October) inflows of the Green River to the Howard A. Hanson Reservoir, Washington 27 Appendix 2. Other techniques considered for developing equations to forecast inflows for the fall-transition season    30

water-resources investigations report

Development, testing, and assessment of regression equations for experimental forecasts of fall-transition-season inflows to the Howard A. Hanson Reservoir, Green River, Washington