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The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge encompasses more than 47,000 acres of New Jersey coastal habitats, including salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, tidal wetlands, barrier beaches, woodlands, and swamps. The refuge is along the Atlantic Flyway and provides breeding habitat for fish, migratory birds, and other wildlife species. The refuge area may be threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR). The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system underlies the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. Groundwater is an important source of freshwater flow into the refuge, but information about the interaction of surface water and groundwater in the refuge area and the potential effects of SLR on the underlying aquifer system is limited. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), conducted a hydrologic assessment of the refuge in New Jersey and developed a groundwater flow model to improve understanding of the geohydrology of the refuge area and to serve as a tool to evaluate changes in groundwater-level altitudes that may result from a rise in sea level. Groundwater flow simulations completed for this study include a calibrated baseline simulation that represents 2005–15 hydraulic conditions and three SLR scenarios―20, 40, and 60 centimeters (cm) (0.656, 1.312, and 1.968 feet, respectively). Results of the three SLR simulations indicate that the water table in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the refuge area will rise, resulting in increased discharge of fresh groundwater to freshwater wetlands and streams. As sea level rises, simulated groundwater discharge to the salt marsh, bay, and ocean is projected to decrease. Flow from the salt marsh, bay, and ocean to the overlying surface water is projected to increase as sea level rises. The simulated movement of the freshwater-seawater interface as sea level rises depends on the hydraulic-head gradient. In the center of the Forsythe model area, topographic relief is 23 feet (ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is 0.0033. In the center of the Forsythe model area, the simulated interface moved inland about 600 ft and downward about 15 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 as a result of a SLR of 60 cm. In the southern part of the Forsythe model area, the topography is flatter (relief of 8 ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is smaller (0.001). In the southern part of the Forsythe model study area, the simulated interface in this area is projected to move inland about 200 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 and does not move downward. Introduction The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) occupies 47,000 acres along the Atlantic Flyway (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2009). The refuge provides breeding habitat for fish, migratory birds, and other wildlife species. About 82 percent of the refuge is wetlands, of which 78 percent is salt marsh (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2009). Salt marshes flourish in areas where there is a delicate balance of fresh groundwater discharge and intermittent flooding with saltwater. The vertical development of salt marshes depends on the rate of supply of fine-grained sediments and plant organic matter (Kirwan and others, 2016; Kemp and others, 2013). The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system is an important source of fresh groundwater flow to the refuge in New Jersey. There is a need for refuge managers to understand the interaction of surface-water and groundwater flow and the effect of sea-level rise on the refuge. However, few published data or analyses of the interaction of surface-water and groundwater flow into the refuge are available. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), began a hydrologic assessment of the Edwin B. Forsythe NWR in New Jersey. The results of data collection and analysis conducted as part of the hydrologic assessment will be used by USFWS personnel to make decisions about habitat restoration projects. The hydrologic assessment included the development of a groundwater flow model designed to improve understanding of the hydrogeology of the refuge area and serve as a tool that can also be used by USFWS personnel to inform management decisions regarding habitat restoration. 2 Hydrogeology, Groundwater Flow, and Sea-Level Rise Effects, Kirkwood-Cohansey Aquifer System, Forsythe Refuge, NJ Purpose and Scope This report describes the hydrogeology and documents the development and application of a groundwater flow model and the results of the simulation of groundwater flow in the aquifers underlying the Edwin B. Forsythe NWR, New Jersey. The model focuses on the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of New Jersey in the vicinity of the refuge. The report describes the results of investigative work, including conducting surface geophysical surveys, collecting water-level and water-quality data from drive-point wells, and incorporating additional existing lithologic and geophysical data from available boreholes in the area. The field investigation was performed to refine details of the hydrogeology in the heterogeneous aquifer system and guide decisions for choosing input parameters for an accurate representation of the aquifer system in the model. Additionally, installation of 44 temporary piezometers and a synoptic water-level study that included measuring water levels in the 44 piezometers and 28 existing wells provided additional information regarding groundwater conditions in the study area. Previous Investigations Many published reports that describe the hydrology and geologic framework of New Jersey Coastal Plain sediments are available. A hydrogeologic framework study of these sediments that includes mapping the subsurface extent and stratigraphic relations of all the aquifers and confining units in the New Jersey Coastal Plain was published by Zapecza (1989). Isphording (1970) initially described the stratigraphy of the Kirkwood Formation. Sugarman (2001) describes the geology and stratigraphic relations of the Kirkwood and Cohansey Formations. Newell and others (2000) published descriptions and results of mapping of the surficial sedimentary deposits of central and southern New Jersey. The geology and groundwater resources of Ocean County are presented in a report by Anderson and Appel (1969). Watt and others (1994) describe the hydrology of the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Toms River Basin in Ocean County. The hydrology of the Atlantic Coastal Basins and the Mullica River Basin in the southern part of Ocean County is described by Gordon (2004) and Johnson and Watt (1996), respectively. The geology and hydrology of the Mullica River Basin are documented by Rhodehamel (1973). Several groundwater flow models of the Coastal Plain aquifers in New Jersey that extend into the Forsythe model area were developed. The Regional Aquifer System Analysis (RASA) model simulated flow in the aquifers and confining units of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, which includes the Forsythe model area (Martin, 1998; Voronin, 2004). Nicholson and Watt (1997) developed a groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Metedeconk and Toms River Basins in the northern half of Ocean County and southern Monmouth County. Pope and others (2012) developed a groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins in Burlington and Atlantic Counties. Cauller and others (2016) developed a groundwater flow model of the KirkwoodCohansey aquifer system in Ocean County and parts of Monmouth and Burlington Counties. Well-Numbering System The well-numbering system used in this report has been used by the USGS in New Jersey since 1978. The well number consists of a county code number and a sequence number assigned to the well in the county. The county codes used in this report are 1, Atlantic County; 5, Burlington County; and 29, Ocean County. For example, well 29-100 is the 100th well inventoried in Ocean County. Location and Description of Study Area The Edwin B. Forsythe NWR (fig. 1) encompasses more than 47,000 acres of New Jersey coastal habitats, including salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, tidal wetlands, barrier beaches, woodlands, and swamps. In order to understand the interaction of surface-water and groundwater discharge into the Edwin B. Forsythe NWR, the study area includes areas upland from the refuge. The extent of the study area (fig. 1) is referred to in this report as the “Forsythe model area.” The Forsythe model area includes Barnegat Bay, Little Egg Harbor, Great Bay, and the tidal portion of the Mullica River (fig. 1). The eastern boundary extends approximately 30 miles (mi) east of the barrier islands into the Atlantic Ocean, the northeastern boundary extends into the southern part of Monmouth County, the southwestern boundary extends into the eastern part of Atlantic County, and the northwestern boundary extends into Ocean and Burlington Counties (fig. 1). Description of Hydrologic System For a detailed description of the surficial hydrologic flow system in the Edwin B. Forsythe NWR, the reader is referred to Wieben and Chepiga (2018). Groundwater levels in the refuge area range from altitudes of 0 to 65 feet (ft) relative to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88), with most water-table altitudes within 3 ft above sea level. Groundwater generally flows eastward from upland areas toward the coast, where hydraulic-head gradients are less steep because topographic relief is lower, the water table is less than 2 ft below land surface, and groundwater discharge to wetlands and streams is increased. Base flow accounts for the majority (68–94 percent) of streamflow to the refuge, and recharge to the water table occurs primarily in the uplands where 30 to 40 percent of precipitation enters the sub

scientific investigations report

Hydrogeology of, simulation of groundwater flow in, and potential effects of sea-level rise on the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the vicinity of Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey