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Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study. The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98. The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory. Introduction Flow forecasts entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical to the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Ill. (fig. 1), also referred to as Stratton Dam, according to the operational guidelines in use. The dam at McHenry is used primarily to maintain a pool for boating, fishing, and recreation in the Chain of Lakes; however, during flood events, the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry helps to minimize damage to property and loss of life upstream and downstream from McHenry. The Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources (IDNR–OWR) has operated the dam at McHenry since 1939 (Illinois Department of Natural Resources, 2012). In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); IDNR–OWR; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center (NWS) began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The hydrologic gages established along the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are of two types (table 1). All gages on lakes (USGS station numbers 05547000, 05547500, and 05548000) are stage-only gages. Gages on the Fox River (USGS station numbers 05548500, 05549500, and 05549501) are also stage-only. The only streamflow-gaging station in the area is on Nippersink Creek (USGS station number 05548280). In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering Center– Reservoir System Simulation (HEC–ResSim) program (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2013) was used as the primary tool for Chain of Lakes reservoir modeling. Although the Chain of Lakes consists of several lakes, the lakes are connected in a way such that they can be modeled as a single reservoir. The nonequivalence and nonlinear relation of the reservoir pool elevation and dam headwater elevation in the Chain of Lakes does not allow for the direct implementation of the dam at McHenry within the modeling software. A satisfactory relation between reservoir pool elevation and dam headwater elevation was found using flow, gage height 2 Development and Evaluation of a Reservoir Model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois